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Kling on Overconfidence

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Fri, 2008-09-19 16:25 — The Conductor
Topic: 
Economics
Philosophy
Politics

At odd intervals I've been shown snapshots from a land presided over (or 1/2 presided over) by Arnold Kling. I think the NRR may need to build a permanent spur to EconLog. Here’s a quick glimpse:

I think that it is human nature to be over-confident about one's own beliefs and abilities. As Tyler Cowen and Robin Hanson point out, one of the consequences of over-confidence is disagreement. You and I cannot both be rational, equally informed, and in disagreement. Yet we often are.

How often do we see opponents in an argument assume the other guy is ignorant or crazy? And how rare is an honest acknowledgment of one’s own doubt or fallibility? What fantastically useful insight!